Sky News AM Agenda
2 August 2010
8:40am
EO & E
Subjects: Newspoll, the ‘real Julia Gillard,’ Kevin Rudd, principal autonomy, Tony Abbott
KIERAN GILBERT:
Let’s go to our panel now. Parliamentary Secretary for Health, Mark Butler, in Adelaide and Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for Disabilities, Senator Mitch Fifield, in Melbourne. Mark Butler first to you, apparently your internal polling, Labor’s internal polling, it reflects a similar sentiment and that is that this thing is on a knife edge right now.
MARK BUTLER:
Well I don’t know what references you’re making to internal polling. Good morning Gilbert, Kieran, sorry. But look I think we all have known for a couple of weeks now that this is going to be a very very tight election. There is no first term government since World War Two that hasn’t had a swing against it, usually a significant swing against it. And our margin is very tight it’s inly seven or eight seats that we need to lose in order to be on the Opposition benches. So Julia Gillard, the Prime Minister, has been saying this for some time. This is going to be a race to the finish. It’s very tight. And the poll today even though it shows a 50-50 two party preferred poll, I think Martin’s right from Newspoll that a 37% primary vote probably means that if the election was held today that Tony Abbott would be Prime Minister.
GILBERT:
Martin also said, Mark, that governments like to control the loss, or the closing of the gap in the campaign. He believes that it’s uncontrolled at the moment. That’s got to be because of those internal leaks. You just can’t stop them.
BUTLER:
Well I don’t think there’s any doubt we had a bad week last week. The Prime Minister had trouble getting her message through for a range of reasons including some pretty successful smears and distractions launched by the Liberal Party. Surely a new low in federal campaigning is launching an attack on a guy while he’s flat on his back in hospital as you saw from Alexander Downer and this morning again from Julie Bishop. But the Prime Minister’s made it clear this morning that she’ll be returning to her true character I think which is talking clearly and talking directly to the Australian people about her plans for the future of the country.
GILBERT:
Unleashing the real Julia Gillard. Where has she been? Has she been kept under wraps by the factional powerbrokers and the Labor strategists, and its taken two weeks into the election campaign to break the shackles?
BUTLER:
Well I think as the Prime Minister said on the footage you showed earlier that modern election campaigning has become a bit of a science and she and Tony Abbott and every leader before her in the elections I’ve been watching have been running fairly traditional election campaigns. But look that isn’t the style of the Julia Gillard I’ve known for 10 years. Her attraction as a political figure is that she talks very clearly and she talks directly to the Australian people about how she thinks the country is going and where she wants to help take it into the future. So the fact that she’s returning to what the commentators are calling…
GILBERT:
But you’ve left it too late. It’s three weeks to go Mark Butler.
BUTLER:
Well three weeks is a long time in politics and it’s an eternity in an election campaign. I’m very confident that she can turn this around. She has a very clear plan for Australia’s future involving continuing strong management of the economy, returning the budget to surplus in three years time. Strong boosting of services in education and health, which we would see Tony Abbott cut very significantly so I’m confident that there’s time to turn this around and there’s time for Julia Gillard to be returned as Prime Minister of Australia. But look there’s no doubt we’ve had a bad week. The polls today show clearly that if an election were held today or tomorrow Tony Abbott would be the Prime Minister. But I’m very confident that Julia Gillard has the capacity to win this thing.
GILBERT:
Okay Mitch Fifield in Melbourne, I want to get your thoughts now on all of that. First of all, you must be fairly buoyant today looking at those polls. With a primary vote of 37% Labor wouldn’t win the election according to Martin O’Shannessy.
SENATOR MITCH FIFIELD:
Well the polls make it clear that this is a competitive election. We’re still very much the underdogs. We’re not going to be focussed on the polls…
GILBERT:
But you’re not, are you? You’re looking very very strong. That 44% primary vote. You’re claiming the underdog but you have to be in it. And the bookies are showing that you’re narrowing it as well.
FIFIELD:
It’s been about 70 years since a first term government lost the first poll that they faced. It would be a remarkable achievement for the Coalition to claw back and win this election. It’s possible. As I say, we are competitive. But we’re going to be focussing on talking about the issues that matter to people. Issues like the cost of living. Yes Newspoll is interesting but it’s a theoretical exercise. The real poll actually starts today. Today is the first day of pre-poll voting. And I think it’s important for people who are going to vote today to recognise that if the Labor government is returned they’re going to get higher taxes, more debt, more waste and more boats. And if you want to stop that, the only way is to vote for the Coalition.
GILBERT:
What’s the mood like within the Coalition now? It must be fairly positive. We’re almost halfway through the campaign. Tony Abbott is putting in a fairly solid performance, no massive slip-ups and polling numbers are firming.
FIFIELD:
Well we’re confident about Tony. We’re confident about our policy agenda, far more confident than the Government is. We’ve seen today Julia Gillard saying that she is now going to take control of the campaign, that we’re going to see the real Julia Gillard. Are these guys for real? You can’t believe anything they say. What Julia Gillard has done is admitted that she has merely been running the lines that have been given to her. Now of course we’re not going to see the real Julia Gillard. What we’re going to see are a new set of lines. And the new lines are, “I wasn’t being honest before, I wasn’t being straightforward before, I wasn’t being real before, but believe me now. Now you really are seeing the real Julia Gillard.” And she really gave it all away in her interview in the Daily Telegraph this morning when she said “it’s about me.” Well it’s not about Julia Gillard, it’s not about the Labor Party, it’s about the Australian people and their concerns. Concerns like cost of living pressures, debt, waste. They want good schools, they want good hospitals. And we saw the first demonstration today of what is meant to be the new Julia Gillard. Her announcement about giving principals greater autonomy. Well that’s something that we’ve been on about for a long time. Julia Gillard had the opportunity to give principals more autonomy with the schools stimulus programme, with the Building the Education Revolution. She didn’t. Simon Crean said as recently as last week that school principals were too busy to manage those projects. The announcement today, it’s just going to be more spin. It’s not real. This government doesn’t believe in giving principals authority and autonomy. We’re not going to see the real Julia Gillard. We’re just going to see more spin and more lines.
GILBERT:
Okay Senator Fifield, I want to come back to you for a bit more of that after the break. Stay with us. It’s time for a short break on AM Agenda.
Break
Let’s get back to our panel now. Senator Mitch Fifield of the Liberal Party and Labor’s Mark Butler. Senator Fifield, Tony Abbott’s warning of a nasty campaign in this final three weeks. That it’s going to get personal. But Julia Gillard says why shouldn’t the Liberal Leader’s contradictions be put to him? And on various issues, be it the climate change issue, the ETS or on industrial relations. He’s had many backflips.
FIFIELD:
Well, Tony, just take the issue of paid parental leave, he’s been very up front that his thinking has changed over the years. That as you ponder an issue further you’re entitled to change your mind if you think that there’s a better policy on offer. And that’s what Tony did with paid parental leave.
GILBERT:
He’s changed them fairly quickly though hasn’t he, on the ETS for example? He changed it within a couple of weeks.
FIFIELD:
Tony’s indicated that he as a senior member of the Shadow Cabinet was supporting the position of the Leader of the day and when it got to a point where he could no longer do that Tony did the honourable thing, he stepped down from the frontbench. So I don’t think that we can be critical of the way Tony has conducted himself in relation to the ETS or paid parental leave. You mention, Kieran, this being a nasty campaign. I think that the real nastiness in this campaign is all inside the Labor Party. You’ve seen the leaks against Julia Gillard. You’ve seen the way that Julia Gillard and her caucus treated then Prime Minister Rudd. Where there’s nastiness, look to the ALP caucus.
GILBERT:
Senator Fifield, on one issue relevant to your own responsibilities as the Parliamentary Secretary for Disabilities. The Opposition Leader last night had some comments to make about politicians waffling on about access to cinemas and he was talking about disabled access to cinemas. Last night Mr Abbott had to apologise for those comments. Fairly insensitive, aren’t they?
FIFIELD:
Well the point that Tony was making is that ministerial statements have historically been used by government to announce major changes to policy rather than to provide periodic updates on portfolios. Tony…
GILBERT:
But you don’t support the nature of what he said do you?
FIFIELD:
Look Tony recognises that the example cited was a poor one. He’s apologised for that. But what I do know as the Shadow for Disabilities is that Tony gets disability issues. Tony knows that the system of support for Australians with a disability is deeply fractured, deeply flawed and that we need to do better. And that’s one of the reasons why Tony and myself are both deeply committed to the work that the Productivity Commission is currently doing to look at the idea of a national disability insurance scheme. And one of the things that we’d do, if we’re fortunate enough to be in government, will be to look very seriously at the recommendations of that commission.
GILBERT:
Absolutely. Well let’s look at another issue now with Mark Butler. The issue of Kevin Rudd. What are you going to do with him. He’s been a big distraction as Mitch rightly pointed out. A lot of division within the Government last week, it was a disaster. And what to do with Kevin Rudd in Queensland? Will you get him out there on the campaign trail? Do you think you should Mark?
BUTLER:
Well before I go to that Kieran can I just respond to a couple of things Mitch just said? I mean Tony Abbott is surely the first person ever to suggest that the Australian Parliament spends too much time talking about the needs of Australians with a disability and their carers. It was an extraordinary thing to say…
FIFIELD:
That’s not what Tony was saying.
BUTLER:
The fact that it even popped into his mind let alone came out of his mouth gives you a bit of an insight into the bizarre and quite out of touch views that this guy has about a range of policy areas. And you don’t just have to look at the ETS as well. I agree with Mitch, that from time to time political figures do changes their minds around policy issues. But the sheer scale of the backflips that Tony Abbott has undertaken in the last six or seven months. On climate change, on families policy with paid parental leave, something he had adamant views about, on industrial relations, his initial view that there wouldn’t be any tax increases under an Abbott Government thrown out the door a couple of weeks later. We really need to analyse quite what Tony Abbott has said and done over the last six months to wonder what life would be like under his prime ministership.
GILBERT:
And what about Kevin Rudd? What are you going to do with him?
BUTLER:
Well I think Kevin Rudd needs to be given time, as his wife has said, to recuperate from the surgery that he’s had. Now I’m not his doctor, I don’t have any inside information about how that recovery is going. And I think the best thing for us to do all is to wait and see how his recovery goes. But if he is able to recover and get back on the campaign trail before the 21st of August, as we hope he will, then he’s clearly got an important role to play firstly as a candidate in the seat of Griffith and potentially beyond then. But that really is a matter I think between Kevin Rudd and the Prime Minister. But I think first things first, let’s just see how his recovery goes and leave that to him, his wife Therese Rein, and his doctors.
GILBERT:
Mark Butler and Senator Mitch Fifield, appreciate your time gentleman as always. Thanks for that.
ENDS